This guide identifies the five declining states in the latest Census release, explains the components behind the totals, and shows how to use the ranking responsibly.
A population-loss ranking can look dramatic even when a state’s estimated change is small or concentrated far from the community a mover is considering.
Five states declined in the latest one-year Census estimates
California, Hawaii, Vermont, New Mexico, and West Virginia had negative total population change between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025. Together, their estimated decline was about 16,000 residents.
California had the largest numeric decline at about 9,500. Vermont had the largest percentage decline at about 0.29%. The article is published in 2026, while the measured period ends in 2025.
Counts show scale; percentages make states easier to compare
California’s decline was about 0.02% of its population, while Vermont’s was about 0.29%. Hawaii declined by about 2,100 residents, New Mexico by about 1,300, and West Virginia by about 1,300.
These are annual estimates and can be revised in the next Census vintage. The five-state result is useful context, especially when paired with county and city estimates.
Total population change includes more than domestic moving
California had a much larger domestic-migration loss, partly offset by international migration and other population components. West Virginia gained residents from other states but still declined overall because births, deaths, international migration, and adjustments also shape the total.
Use domestic-migration data when the question is movement among states. Use total population change when the question is whether the state grew or declined overall.
Statewide decline can coexist with growing local markets
A state total can hide growing metros, tight rental markets, rising home prices, strong employers, and shrinking rural areas. Local age changes can also affect schools, labor, health care, and public services differently.
Compare the intended county, city, and neighborhood before drawing a conclusion. Housing, income, insurance, taxes, climate, care, schools, transportation, and support networks determine whether the destination fits.
Use the ranking to choose the next local questions
Check current housing supply, employment or retirement income, utilities, insurance, taxes, transportation, health care, schools, and the service area around the exact address.
If you want to know where residents moved, use state-to-state flow tables and the domestic-outflow guide. Refresh the ranking when Census publishes the next state population vintage.
Continue with the narrower analysis: the separate domestic-outflow ranking. Each page keeps its own geography, denominator and decision scope.
